Wednesday 19 February 2025

A demilitarised zone won’t work – Russia and Ukraine must enforce peace themselves

President Trump revealed that he has directed that ceasefire negotiations begin. As momentum builds for a ceasefire in Ukraine – an essential first step toward elections and a lasting peace accord – we must be clear-eyed about the dangers of a misguided approach. Some voices have suggested establishing a demilitarised zone, policed by UN peacekeepers or European forces or even NATO, as a mechanism for securing this ceasefire. This is a grave mistake. It is a fantasy conjured by those who do not understand the realities of modern war, the limitations of international forces or the brutal nature of Vladimir Putin’s strategy. It is a solution that, in practice, will lead to escalation, not peace.

The proponents of a plan that puts peacekeeping forces on the dividing line are misguided. What kind of peacekeeping force could be placed between two of the largest and most experienced armies in Europe, fighting across a 3700 kilometre front line? These forces comprise 1.5 million soldiers with three years of modern warfare experience.

But if a foreign-policed DMZ is impossible, what is the alternative?

The answer is both simpler and stronger: A military ceasefire negotiated directly between the Ukrainian and Russian general staffs. NATO can and should enforce a no-fly-zone over Ukraine during the ceasefire and, on mutually beneficial terms, will assist in rebuilding Ukraine’s economy – but after that, it will be up to Europe.

Europe needs Ukraine – and its army. This is why the West must help Ukraine conduct presidential and then parliamentary elections, and assist the new Ukrainian leadership in forming a reasonable compromise for long-lasting negotiations with the Putin regime.

The role of other countries should instead be monitoring and structured dialogue. Western powers must also provide weapons and help rebuild Ukraine’s military and defence industry, alongside guarantees, to deter future Russian aggression.

The United States should take the lead in establishing a five-party commission – a body to monitor compliance, prevent conflict and ensure ongoing dialogue. This commission, composed of the US, China, Europe, Russia and Ukraine, could oversee the ceasefire and manage disputes. Representatives could be personally appointed by their heads of state, with the authority to act decisively – not bureaucrats, but real decision-makers.

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