Tuesday 11 February 2025

Will Donald Trump fall for Vladimir Putin’s tricks?

In politics, as in war, truth is often the first casualty. No one understands this better than Vladimir Putin, who has built his strategic doctrine on deception, misdirection, and the careful manipulation of historical narratives.

To say that Putin and the Russian regime lie may seem obvious, or even trite, now. But this is not just a question of historical accuracy. It goes to the core of Russia’s diplomatic playbook: Putin has repeatedly used the illusion of negotiation as a tool to delay, mislead, and ultimately justify aggressive action. America needs to know that.

At the heart of Putin’s revisionist history, justifying his brutal invasion of Ukraine, is his claim that the Ukrainian Maidan protests of 2014 were not only an illegitimate coup, but also a CIA-funded act of Western sabotage that left Russia with no choice but to intervene.

He argues that then-President Viktor Yanukovych was willing to negotiate with the opposition, that European guarantors failed to uphold their commitments, and that protesters — whom he paints as violent fascists and extremists — rejected peace for bloodshed. And, crucially, he asserts that Russia itself was neutral, merely seeking to mediate.

This is all a lie.

Putin’s lies collapse under the weight of facts. The truth is that Russia actively sabotaged the very negotiations that Putin now claims were ignored by the West. The key to unraveling this falsehood lies in the role of Vladimir Lukin, Russia’s appointed mediator at Maidan, and the deliberate Russian withdrawal at the pivotal moment.

On Feb. 20, 2014, Yanukovych — facing mounting unrest — requested that Putin send a mediator to Kyiv. Lukin was sent as Russia’s envoy — and Trojan horse. The negotiations brought together representatives from Ukraine’s government; the opposition; Germany, France, and Poland. The goal was clear: to find peaceful resolution to the crisis.

However, when the moment came to sign the agreement, Lukin walked away. His refusal was no accident. It was a deliberate move by the Kremlin, signaling that Russia would not support a negotiated transition. This was the moment when Russia’s true intentions were laid bare, though the world did not appreciate it.

If Putin had truly wanted peaceful resolution, Lukin would have signed the agreement. Instead, the Russian delegation cast doubt on the deal’s legitimacy, undermining Yanukovych’s position. 

Initially, the agreement offered Ukraine a path to a peaceful transition of power with elections in a matter of months. But when Putin withdrew Lukin, the situation spiraled out of control, with Yanukovych’s flight from Kyiv and the resulting power vacuum, leading to war in Donbass and the Russian seizure of Crimea.

The Kremlin had achieved its goal: the collapse of Ukraine’s government under conditions that Russia could exploit. Indeed, Lukin was caught by Ukrainian intelligence in a recorded call with Donbas separatist leader Igor Strelkov.

This proves what we all know: Russia was not only undermining the Maidan negotiations; it was coordinating with separatist forces to destabilize Ukraine. The supposed neutrality of Russia’s mediation was exposed, with Lukin serving as a link between the Kremlin and the insurgency that would engulf eastern Ukraine.

At the time, Putin claimed that he did not ‘want Russia’s hands to be tied’; indeed, his goal was for Russia’s hands to remain free: Free to justify his aggression against Ukraine.

Putin now claims as justification Ukraine’s refusal to negotiate, coupled with NATO’s expansion. But this is false: Russia itself sabotaged the negotiations that could have prevented the crisis. It was not the protesters who scuttled the peace process; it was Putin.

The Minsk Agreements, intended to end the Donbas war, followed the same pattern: Signed, ignored, and then used as a pretext for escalation. Now, as the war in Ukraine grinds on, Moscow employs the same tactics, feigning interest in negotiations while preparing for further offensives.

For the new Trump Administration, the lesson is clear: Putin’s doesn’t negotiate in good faith. Any negotiation with Russia must begin from this fundamental understanding. The Kremlin does not negotiate to find solutions; it negotiates to create pretexts and to break free of international isolation.

If President Trump is to chart a clear-eyed policy on Russia, he must recognize this deception for what it is — and recognize Putin for who he is. The cost of failing to do so is the erosion of U.S. strategic credibility, and his potential to halt the decline of the West against its illiberal enemies.

If Washington engages with Putin under the assumption that he is a rational actor interested in compromise, it will be led down the same path as Ukraine, Europe, and countless others — fooled, stalled, and ultimately betrayed.

The world has seen Putin sing this song before. His lullabies seek to lull listeners into a false sense of security, and in their sleep allow Russia to take what it wants by force.

America’s music is much livelier than Putin’s lullabies. It’s said one of Donald Trump’s favorite tunes is the Rolling Stones: “You Can’t Always Get What You Want.” Putin should heed these lyrics.

Perhaps Biden was lulled to sleep, but Trump is listening to different music, and his team is immune to such tricks.

Alexander Temerko is a Ukrainian-British businessman and political activist and member of the advisory council of the Institute of Economic Affairs. Bennett Iorio is the president of the Geopolitical Insight & Education Foundation.

(Original article is accessible only from within the USA)

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